Innisfree Farm

Derby Choice Journal 2008 - 29th Edition

Years- some we hold dear, some we try to purge from memory and some we lose without prompting. The year under discussion here is 1975. You may remember it as a year of invention. The laser jet printer, liposuction and post it notes top the list. Politically speaking, it was the year that John Mitchell, Bob Haldeman, John Ehrlichman, and Bill Clinton were all placed in stir. The three Watergaters became guests of the federal corrections system while the future president wed Hillary Rodham. In the financial world, the Dow-Jones Industrials were still quoted in the hundreds. A forty-nine year old former flack for Ayn Rand was Gerald Ford’s chief economic advisor, whose contributions included the infamous WIN (Whip Inflation Now) buttons. Later in life as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan would Whip Inflation Up. Greenie would then recycle the buttons with whiteout on the I and the N thereby ensuring another term as central banker in chief.

That year also produced the unforgettable rubber match between Ali and Frazier exceeding even Don King’s hyperbole as the Thrilla in Manila riveted boxing fans worldwide. Over Smokin’ Joe’s gallant and bitter objection, his handler Eddie Futch threw in the towel after round fourteen fearing permanent damage to Frazier’s closed left eye. Carlton Fisk’s twelfth inning homer in the sixth game of the World Series to force a seventh game was no less memorable than his body English and finger pointing to persuade his shot to stay inside the foul pole of the Green Monster. Predictably the next day, The Big Red Machine prevailed 4-3 to deliver the championship to the Queen City. Saturday Night Live debuted and the release of the album, “Blood on the Tracks”, marked the magnum opus of Bob Dylan.

There was also a fortuitous happening for both the editor and readers of this annual screed because it was one of those inexplicable redactions from the Book of Fate that marks all of our existences. Your editor, as usual taking every opportunity to maximize entertainment from all business trips, booked a flight to New York from New Orleans on June 24th of that year scheduled to arrive in ample time to meet the opening pitch of a Cardinals-Mets night game. A change of schedule resulted from a last minute assignment to Chicago the day before. The flight from Chicago landed at JFK moments before the original booking, Eastern Airlines Flight 66, crashed with over 100 fatalities. This was just another heat in the race between luck and doom that enrolls us all from womb to tomb. Or as Vonnegut was fond of saying, “And so it goes.”

Notable milestones of 1975 included the passing of the last of the Three Stooges with the stage left exits of Moe Howard and Larry Fine. Happily the former Vaudevillians bequeathed a video archive chockablock with nyuk-nyuk-nyuks and woo-woo-woos entertaining our adolescent sides to this day. New arrivals from the stork included Big Papi, A-Rod, Tiger Woods, David Beckham, Eric the Midget, and three of the greatest thoroughbreds of the 20th century. Last year’s letter told the story of two: Alydar and Affirmed. Herewith the tale of the third.

His pedigree was so minor, his personality so irascible, and his appearance so rough hewn that castration was done in kindness as much as necessity. For whatever use he might have, superimposing a stallion’s predilections on this unimposing physical specimen almost surely would have brought a one-way ticket to the knacker’s yard.

“He isn’t very big, but he sure is ugly,” a looker might have observed at the Keeneland Mixed Sale, a literal After Christmas Sale of inventory liquidation in January of 1976. His apparently meaningless pedigree (his sire went for $900-not the stud fee, the whole horse) blended perfectly with his conformation flaws, chief of which was a condition known as calf-knee or back at the knee. Such ill-conformed horses are notorious for unsoundness that often produces brief or non-existent racing careers.

His breeder and seller at that auction was Golden Chance Farm, owner of 1970 Derby winner, Dust Commander. There was latent quality in the yearling’s sire with the unassuming down-home moniker, Ole Bob Bowers. Bob had sired quite a few decent runners and his name concealed more than a bit of pedigree. His sire, Prince Blessed, was by the prepotent Princequillo, sire of Round Table. The colt’s dam, Once Double, though of minimal accomplishment was by the great Claiborne stallion Double Jay. But by definition every thoroughbred has greatness somewhere in the family tree. Consequently there were no gasps when one John E. Calloway signed the auction ticket for $1100.

Mr. Calloway, by habit, named his yearlings after songs. For this purchase he chose a folk song about a superhuman 19th century railroad worker who may or may not have existed. The colt would be called John Henry.

Whatever poetic license accompanied the achievements of his human avatar, the legend of John Henry, the horse, would be based on irrevocably documented history. At his retirement at age nine, his rise from rejection to renown had produced lifetime winnings from purses of $6,597,947, a new world record. But in his early cycle of acquisition and disposition, he was passed around like a joint in a commune.

Owner number two, the Calloway, quickly tired of John’s ornery habits which included stall destruction and savaging of all visitors therein. John’s next ownership transfer came quickly in the 1977 renewal of the same sale. This time the price was $2200 and the buyer was a horse trading and training professional named Hal Snowden, Jr. To know where this story went next, you only need to know that Mr. Snowden’s nom courant was Bubba.

In New Orleans, a thirty seven year-old former jockey named Phil Marino was training a small string of modest claimers. Marino, who could possibly have been Sonny Bono’s doppelganger, had as his principal client a three person partnership chaired by a lady named Colleen Madere that groomed poodles for a living. Colleen and partners packed up with Phil and headed for Kentucky to find a two-year-old prospect that fit a poodle parlor budget. This was not a quest for a Derby horse. These pilgrims sought a runner with the potential to compete in the Lafayette Futurity, a two-year-old contest with an inflated purse run at Evangeline Downs each Labor Day.

After days of trying prospects, Marino encountered the now-gelded Snowden prospect and was as impressed with his powerful gallop as much as he was unimpressed with his appearance. With a straight face, Bubba demanded a price of $10,000 with no wiggle room. Days of negotiation ended with an $11,000 two horse southbound package that included John and a filly that would never make it to the races.

For John Henry’s debut, Marino chose a half-mile $2000 maiden special weight race at Jefferson Downs. Jefferson Downs was a dystopian bullring near Moisant Airport on the banks of Lake Pontchartrain. The competitive level was as low as the reclaimed swamp upon which it sat. Race meetings were held at night with the pointless intention of mitigating the daily oppression of the Louisiana summers.

The venue possessed an Alfred Hitchcock like surreality created by the competing cacophony of jet traffic and buzzing squadrons of mosquitoes. The track’s human denizens provided a nightly freak parade of characters that were a blend of cast members from a Fellini film and figures from Leonardo da Vinci’s sketchbook.

So small was the betting pool in these pre-simulcast days that a hundred dollar win wager could reduce a horse’s odds by half or more. Consequently most serious players either bet at the last possible instant or did their business with the furtive bookmakers that lingered near the pari-mutuel windows.

When post time approached, the public address system would begin playing the Colonel Bogey March (theme from the film, The Bridge on the River Kwai). At this notice, the hapless players would retreat from the assault of the class insecta and march into the nominally air conditioned interior.

Among the many memorable regulars there was a tout known only as Confidential Charlie. Charlie was of a mix of races that at a minimum was sourced from Asian, Hispanic, and Anglo roots. He was always dressed in suit and tie which alone would have singled him. Faux gems of cubic zirconia graced several fingers as well as his cufflinks and stickpin that displayed a constant glitter around him. Likewise did his jellied hairdo that was at once past and before its time.

Fitting of a professional tout, Charlie spoke barely above a whisper. His habit of sucking air through his upper teeth and rolling a toothpick left and right punctuated his other unique characteristics. As Charlie was a daily communicant of old J.D., he almost certainly would have been a witness when John scored by a slim nose at first asking that evening of May 20, 1977. Two memories of Confidential Charlie I hold as certain. His name was not Charlie and the price of breaking his confidences was never more than twenty dollars a pop.

Over the next two months, John would add a second, a third, and a lost rider to his resume there before his team adjourned to Carencro, home of Evangeline Downs and the $86k Lafayette Futurity. The tab at E.D. would reveal two wins and a second from three tries including a head victory in the eagerly sought Lafayette Futurity.

John Henry had proven himself useful enough for Phil Marino to set sight on the winter meet at New Orleans Fair Grounds where larger purses, a higher competitive level, and crushing disappointment waited. At the meet’s conclusion in March of ’78, John would be 0 for nine while confounding his connections with his dislike for the racing surface there. So unimpressive were his efforts that despite being entered in claiming events as low as $20k, he attracted no interest.

At this point the poodle lady sent Phil to Bubba with instructions to unload John for the best deal possible which turned out to be a swap for a couple of unmemorable unraced juveniles. Bubba started John but once in a Keeneland allowance race in which he finished an uninspiring fourth.

In New York a bicycle importer named Sam Rubin told an agent named Jimmy Ferraro that he might be interested in spending $25k on a runner. No roper would be needed for this sting as the mark had roped himself. Ferraro informed him of Snowden’s gelding that just happened to fit Rubin’s budget precisely. Be sure that Jimmy and Bubba did not make their ways in the world as low cost providers. Sam would be paying, to put it kindly, full retail. Sam Rubin would become John Henry’s fifth and final owner.

Sam grew up on Manhattan’s lower East Side the son of Russian immigrants, and could rightly have been called a product of the School of Hard Knocks. But his post-graduate work was largely in the School of Hard Eights. Sam was a gambler. Horse and sports betting dominated his non-cycling moments.

The newly formed one-horse stable would be named Dotsam, a joining of the Rubin’s first names, Sam and Dorothy. They were widower and widow respectively at the renewal of a long ago friendship that was soon followed by marriage.

Upon arrival, John Henry was placed in the care of Dotsam’s first trainer, a former policeman named Bob Donato. Given the sale price, Donato could not run him at a level of his choosing which almost certainly would have been lower than the $25k claiming tag sprint he chose for his New York premiere. John’s easy score in that spot at 12/1 only inspired the trainer to jump him to $35k but importantly to two turns on the grass. This would mark the birth of a star as the gelding sashayed home by fourteen lengths. He would never run for a price again.

What later in life would be called by Sam Rubin “the ride of a lifetime” at this point was metaphorically no more than a limo to the airport. Little did any of the connections suspect that waiting at that airport was a private jet chartered with unlimited mileage.

By mid-summer Rubin’s charge had taken on graded turf stakes company against older horses at Belmont and in a pair of narrow losses placed second and third. His first graded stakes win would come that September with a twelve length win in Arlington’s Grade III Round Table. That track’s grass course would later produce two of John Henry’s greatest moments.

At the end of this three year old campaign, John had produced $120,000 in winnings for his owner’s $25,000 purchase. For unrecorded reasons, the Rubin-Donato team was disbanded at this point and Rubin passed the training mantle to V.J. “Lefty” Nickerson, a major league conditioner and character.

Being accepted into Nickerson’s barn was a big step up in class for Dotsam and John Henry. While owners might “send” their horse to Bob Donato, they applied to Lefty Nickerson. The latter’s client list overlapped considerably with the membership of the Jockey Club.

John Henry delivered three allowance wins and a couple of stakes placings before cold weather brought an end to the grass racing season for 1979. Putting his horse and owner’s interests above his own, Lefty suggested sending John to California for the winter to his good friend Ron McAnally. The pals had met as apprentice grooms at Boston’s Suffolk Downs and earned their way to the big time.

Growing up in a Kentucky orphanage and later achieving Hall of Fame status as a trainer gave Ron McAnally a healthy empathy for John Henry’s progression from rejection to acceptance. Now in his mid-seventies, McAnally is a man of apparently perpetual cheer as well as boundless patience and sensitivity in the development of thoroughbreds. He has brought a horse with no tail (Sea Cadet) and a horse with one eye (Cassaleria) to the Kentucky Derby. And he won the Arkansas Derby with a horse (Silver Ending) that like John Henry had once been sold for $1500. His face always bears a smile in part from sincere contentment and in part from a squint imparted from decades below the California sun.

In his breezy biography of John Henry, Blood Horse senior writer Steve Haskin quotes McAnally’s explanation of his success in training John Henry: “I taught him to trust me.”

The plan of winters in California with McAnally and summers in New York with Nickerson produced a success that found John Henry’s favoritism at odds lower than the price of Raul Castro to succeed his brother, Commandante Fidel, as El Jeffe de Cuba.

During that first stretch out west from fall of 1979 to spring 1980, John Henry reeled off six consecutive graded stakes and headed back to Lefty packing seven wins and two seconds from nine starts. In New York that summer John managed a creditable if less spectacular one win, three seconds and a third from five starts, all but one in graded stakes.

By this time, Alydar and Affirmed had departed for the Blue Grass to launch their stallion careers and John Henry was in the formative stages of becoming America’s horse. Although there was never a formal anointing, in 1980 his first (Champion Turf Horse) of seven Eclipse Awards to be earned probably marked the beginning of the John Henry Era.

Without demeaning any of the previous trainers including Lefty Nickerson who had led John from stall to paddock, Ron McAnally, as soapy as it sounds, became the father John Henry never knew. Of course all thoroughbreds get their early parenting from single moms so to speak, but before their first birthday, their learning is totally under human supervision. And it was McAnally that reached the inner John that would result the ultimate in Eclipse Awards in 1981 and 1984: Horse of the Year.

JohnHenry’s explosive rise to grade stakes winner had initially been the result of Bob Donato’s decision to send him greensward. But early in 1981, the now six year old won five consecutive graded stakes including the Grade I “Big Cap” run on the dirt at Santa Anita. That fall he would again notch a major dirt win in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont as well as a repeat win in the Grade I Oak Tree at Santa Anita. Between those streaks he captured the inaugural running of the Arlington Million. Several years back in a profile of Bill Shoemaker we reflected on that race:

“The inaugural running of the Arlington Million in 1981 attracted a field of international turf stars. John Henry and the Shoe enjoyed well- deserved favoritism. Searching for price, we settled on a 30/1 chance with Irish connections: The Bart with Eddie Delahoussaye up. The Bart cleared the field at the sixteenth pole and John Henry appeared beaten, some eight lengths in arrears, when he let-loose with that awkward motion that looked like one of those West Texas oilfield nodding donkeys. Shoe and Eddie hit the wire together but the Bart appeared to have won the head-bob. In fact the late Pete Axthelm declared it so to a national audience. Unfortunately for The Bart and your editor, Shoe had once again broken a longshot´s heart with a miracle finish.”

In 1982 he again took the Santa Anita Handicap on a justified DQ of Perrault and repeated in the Oak Tree as well. But he had “only” two Grade I wins from five tries before a disastrous thirteenth place finish in the Japan Cup. He was so knocked out from the Tokyo misadventure that the now eight year old had only a single prep for his defense of the Arlington Million. He would lose that defense by a neck while giving eight pounds to the good English horse Tolomeo. And even a win at year end in the Grade I Hollywood Turf Cup still left most with the conclusion that John Henry’s retirement was at hand.

His first start of 1984, the Santa Anita Handicap, left the impression that maybe he should have hung it up. The nine year old stumbled badly shortly after the start and finished a dull fifth. But he followed that effort with a three quarter length third to the ‘Big Cap winner, Interco. Then followed three wins in all three turf tries and a second to ‘83 Derby runner-up, Desert Wine, in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

Then came yet another Arlington Million score, an incredible three years after the first. Against the Bart in 1981, the chart note read “just up.” This time his facile victory was noted simply as “drew out.” It seemed the refrain from Dylan’s “My Back Pages” had been penned for him “Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now.”

This unique race horse still wasn’t through as he added two more wins in as many starts to culminate the longest consequential racing career on record that made him the all time leading money winner.

A strained suspensory ligament forced his connections to abandon a plan to enter John Henry in the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Turf to be run just a couple of weeks after his final win. Sam Rubin’s hope to “run him until his Bar Mitzvah” would not be fulfilled and John was retired to the Kentucky Horse Park where he was instantly boss hoss and star attraction.

John Henry was not the only aged sports wonder to pass our way. Jack Nicklaus won the Masters at forty six, Satchel Paige pitched in an All-Star game at forty seven, and George Blanda played in an AFC Championship game at forty eight. But not even the most ardent admirer of those humans would have suggested they were at their athletic zenith that late in their careers. Yet that argument could certainly be put forth in the case of John Henry. Fully thirty five per cent of his lifetime earnings came at the age of nine. And had he made it to that first Breeders’ Cup, there is no doubt he would have been a huge underlay and started the betting favorite.

John Henry’s popularity was driven in large measure by his competitive zeal and his longevity. But he also possessed the Rockyesque charm of the prevailing underdog that caused People Magazine to name him one of that publication’s twenty five most interesting personalities of 1984. He had begun his racing with the anonymity of a private in the Soviet Army and concluded in fulfillment of the prophecy that the weird sisters proffered Macbeth:” Thou shalt be king hereafter.”

Even in retirement, the gelding maintained his grip on youth held tightly through his racing years. Ponce de Leon vainly sought its source, Hollywood falsely promises it, and Dylan’s lyric prays it finds the object of his affection. But if John Henry failed to stay “Forever Young,” he was only a head bob shy.

Still entertaining visitors at the park well into his thirty second year, his amazing run ended on October 8, 2007 when failing kidneys made euthanasia the only humane proposition. His remains are buried at the Kentucky Horse Park within a horseshoe shaped hedgerow. His memorial statue will bear the inscription “Against All Odds.”

We chose a quote from the estimable late Daily Racing Form columnist Joe Hirsch about John Henry as the epitaph most fitting:

"He was not the best race horse. He was not the fastest or the busiest. He wasn't the greatest weight carrier, and certainly not the handsomest or the most personable. But he was the most remarkable horse who ever raced -- anywhere."

EPILOGUE:

Sam Rubin- If John Henry was the equine equivalent of a nonagenarian, his owner was literally one. Sam Rubin preceded John in death by a year and a half five days short of his ninety second birthday.

Phil Marino- John’s first trainer was unjustifiably ridiculed around the track as “the guy who couldn’t train John Henry.” He descended into a cocaine and vodka dependency and did not return to sobriety until John’s retirement. Extensive attempts to locate him were unsuccessful.

Hal Snowden, Jr. - Ole Bubba is still thriving in the game and following his model that dictates it is better to sell a good horse than keep a bad one.

Bob Donato- The man responsible for putting John on the grass continued a training career largely at the subsistence level despite interruptions from two heart attacks. Our last reliable report had him training a single horse at Fair Grounds a couple of years ago.

Lefty Nickerson- Lefty passed away in 2004 at age seventy five, nine years after a stroke forced his retirement. His most famous student, Richard Mandella, upon his own induction into the Hall of Fame, put Nickerson’s influence on equal footing with that of his father’s.

Ron Mc Anally- Still training a barn full of horses in California, Ron continues to compete at the highest level of the game with the highest level of character. He and his wife accompanied John Henry to his retirement in Kentucky and visited him regularly until his passing.

Confidential Charlie- Last sighting of Charlie was at a Mardi Gras parade about ten years ago. He was behind the counter of a food vending trailer dispensing beer and hot dogs. Nearly bald and blingless in a chef’s smock, Charlie was as effervescent as ever though clearly racing in financially tight quarters. Still he insisted on waving off my payment still rolling the toothpick and sucking air through his teeth. Another Dylan lyric from “Sylvio” summed him up: “Ain’t complaining about what I got. Seen better times but who has not?”

THIS YEAR’S DERBY:

History does not record whether Aristotle was a handicapper or whether he ever even attended the chariot races. But among his contributions was the word kairos found in his treatise on rhetoric. The most broadly accepted English translation is perfect timing. No other term better summarizes the one element without which no horse can hope to wear the garland of roses in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. The list of superior runners that were denied the Derby trophy is seemingly endless. His training peaked too early or too late, he was boxed in tight quarters, a hole closed in a blink just as the winning move was underway, etc.

Last year our selections had kairos in spades as Street Sense and Hard Spun ran 1-2. Let’s hope our Aristotelian streak stays alive for 2008. In this year’s multiple Oscar winner, “No Country for Old Men” (the title borrowed by the Coen Brothers from the opening line of Yeats’ “Sailing to Byzantium”), Tommy Lee Jones is in character as grizzled lawman Ed Tom Bell who is not afraid of dying but does not want “to push my chips forward and go out and meet something I don’t understand.” Welcome to the Kentucky Derby, Ed Tom, where we do exactly that every year. We will try to our best to avoid the opprobrium leveled by the Grateful Dead in their classic Casey Jones: “Got two good eyes but still you don’t see.” We will abide by the Buddha’s last words to his monks: “Strive on diligently!”

The challenge of this year’s renewal can best be summed up in one word: polytrack. The widespread introduction of synthetic racing surfaces has introduced a metric into the handicapping complex that is analogous to the so-called “Dome Teams” in the N.F.L. Putting syn-track results in perspective for key Derby preps such as the Lane’s End, Santa Anita Derby, and Blue Grass is a maddening exercise. But at the risk of oversimplifying, syn-tracks seem to be favored by turf horses more than by dirt specialists. And it seems that racing from syn to dirt works better than dirt to syn. So there is your short course on synthetic surfaces. You are now a polymath (ouch!) certified to engage in racing form hermeneutics and join in the appraisal of the cast in this year’s renewal:

(1) COOL COAL MAN- Was in backup role until WAR PASS’ defection but now main hope of LaPenta/Zito team. Well-traveled colt owns a win over Churchill strip and won the Fountain of Youth that was a graveyard for several other contenders here. Blue Grass bomb could be syn-related. Broodmare sire (RUBIANO) was all speed but daddy MINESHAFT a good distance influence.

(2) TALE OF EKATI- Named for the Ekati diamond mine discovered by his owner-breeder, this son of TALE OF THE CAT got up late to run down sidelined one-time Derby favorite, WAR PASS, in the Wood Memorial. Trainer Tagg conditioned ’03 Derby champ FUNNY CIDE. Pedigree suggests Derby distance may be a stretch.

(3) ANAK NAKAL- In case you are curious, the name translates as “naughty boy” in the Indonesia language. But this boy has been more tardy than naughty in recent efforts. Annexed the Ky Jockey Club at Churchill at two but just galloped around in the Fountain of Youth and Rebel. Got the proverbial “passed tiring horses” chart comment in the Wood for a dull fifth. Pedigree (by Belmont champ VICTORY GALLOP from a QUIET AMERICAN mare) says he’ll pass some quitters on Saturday as well. Hard to figure more than a minor placing.

(4) COURT VISION- If by GULCH out of a STORM BIRD mare sounds familiar, look no further than the 1995 Derby won by THUNDER GULCH as the same pedigree combo was present there. Dam is from the family of A.P. INDY, SUMMER SQUALL, and LEMON DROP KID. Co-owned by connections of BIG BROWN and COLONEL JOHN, this colt’s brilliance at two has produced only a couple of plodding placings at three but his first work at Churchill adding blinkers stopped the clocks and the clockers. Mott and Gomez as strong a trainer/rider combo as any. The former, also conditioned the legendary Cigar, is the youngest trainer to gain Hall of Fame entry. Fits the profile of the likely wise-guy horse.

(5) EIGHT BELLES- Lone filly in this year’s Derby and a deserving presence for sure. She is built like an Amazon (17 hands) and has same connections as last year’s pick, HARD SPUN. Very hard to figure where she fits as all previous starts are vs. fillies but this daughter of UNBRIDLED’S SONG can look all the boys in the eye without elevator shoes.

(6) Z FORTUNE- Owner Ahmed Zayat is an Egyptian beverage magnate with the annoying habit of placing Z’s in his horses’ names. But this pyramid scheme has worked well. Was undefeated until barn mate PYRO overtook him late in the Risen Star at F.G. but closed impressively to be second in the Arkansas Derby. Z has significantly outrun his pedigree although his Brazilian-bred sire Siphon was a game stakes horse in California. Still Asmussen’s second stringer but coming to Z Big One just right.

(7) BIG TRUCK- Barclay Tagg’s second stringer had good form at two and looked like a comer after Tampa Bay Derby nose win over ATONED the day WAR PASS blew up at 1/5. But another victim of the syn-tax as he beat precisely one horse in the Blue Grass. New York-bred is another with an interesting pedigree. Maternal grandsire GO FOR GIN won this one in ’94 and dad HOOK AND LADDER off to a decent start at stud. Will have to get truckin’ a lot quicker to have a big chance Saturday.

(8) VISIONAIRE- Marks return to the event for BARBARO’S genial trainer, Michael Matz. Followed a literal out of the fog closing win in the Gotham with a puzzling poly trip fifth in the Blue Grass. Hard to get a firm handle on this guy but sons of GRAND SLAM certainly have every right to be here and the V-man is no exception. Did make up ground late in the B.G., but handicapping him here requires a visionary.

(9) PYRO- The PYRO-maniacs got a full throttle fire hose dousing in the Blue Grass. After his game second to WAR PASS in the BC Juvenile was followed by winter dominance at Fair Grounds, he looked to be at least headed to co-favoritism in Louisville. Then came the poly-collapse in the Blue Grass. Was it the surface, was it the horse? His performance in his final prep was so uncharacteristically bad, we are inclined to draw a line through it. Trainer Asmussen agrees. Bred for the Derby distance (by PULPIT from a WILD AGAIN mare) and still a major player.

(10 ) COLONEL JOHN- The Colonel’s S.A. Derby impressed us every bit as much as Brownie’s Florida Derby. By one of our all time faves, dual Breeders’ Cup Classic winner TIZNOW. Broodmare sire, TURKOMAN, was same for last year’s runner-up (picked here) HARD SPUN as well as ’01 Preakness and Belmont winner POINT GIVEN. All starts so far on California synthetics so dirt form unknown. Asked about his plan, the affable Irish trainer Eoin Harty said he would ship to Louisville twelve days out: "Then he'll have one work, and I'll pray." Capable Cory Nakatani inherited the mount after Gomez opted for COURT VISION prior to S.A. Derby. Third choice at worst but first time dirt might help odds.

(11) Z HUMOR- The other Z horse is winless at three and really shouldn’t be here but big bucks from the Delta Jackpot last year gets him in. Only pluses are same dad as FUNNY CIDE and trainer Mott. No chuckles here.

(12) SMOOTH AIR- Honest old school type as is his septuagenarian, New Orleans native trainer, Bernie Stutts. Runner up finish in the Florida Derby looked like a solo effort with BIG BROWN five in front of him and show horse seven behind. Never run a bad race but distance here could be an issue.

(13) BOB BLACK JACK- Very hard not to pull for this horse and his four horse barn connections. Co-owned by trainer Kasparoff, his brother, and pal from Brooklyn. This group would normally be seen in the last race on a Wednesday. All have outrun their pedigrees by a large margin. BOB was a game second in the S.A. Derby (killed our exacta). Doing nothing wrong but afraid that Derby distance will come up 22 for BLACK JACK.

(14) MONBA- Was on many Derby short lists until his last place finish as the Fountain of Youth chalk. He bounced back to take a slowly run Blue Grass and save the juggernaut Pletcher barn from Derby exclusion. Dad is MARIA’S MON (sire of ’01 winner MONARCHOS) and Mom is by Belmont winner EASY GOER. So distance not an issue but speed is. Another difficulty is part owner Paul Saylor stiffed me on his one half share on a Fair Grounds box after the track burned to the ground. Haven’t forgotten that one.

(15) ADRIANO- Owner’s middle name is Adrian but we link this colt to Leite Ribeiro Adriano, the star Brazilian Soccer striker (nicknames are The Emperor and The Tank). This ADRIANO has been an emperor on synthetic tracks and turf but tanked in his lone dirt effort at Gulfstream in the Fountain of Youth. The colt has a faultless Derby pedigree being by A.P. Indy and from a dam whose family includes ’87 Derby runner-up (picked here) and Belmont winner, BET TWICE. Hall of Fame ’08 inductee Edgar Prado gives up mounts on Wood and Blue Grass winners to ride here.

(16) DENIS OF CORK- Gets in at last minute with defection of BEHINDATTHEBAR. Was on our very short list until Fig Guys consulting the connections trumped the trainer David Carroll’s Derby prep race schedule. An awful Illinois Derby left DENIS at twenty one on the money list. Trainer is Irish and colt is named for a priest in Ireland (Fr. Denis Casey). Irish priests and horse racing have a winning history in Hollywood. Training at Churchill has been superb and could be a cork popper if he returns to pre-Illinois form.

(17) COWBOY CAL- This son of European Horse of the Year, GIANT’S CAUSEWAY, completed the Pletcher exacta in the Blue Grass and appeared to run as good a race as the winner. Another whose winning form is confined to turf and syn-tracks making the Derby’s dirt course a giant question mark. In Irish legend the giant Finn McCool built the causeway to expedite his invasion of Scotland. Cal’s ’s female family includes the stayer, BEHRENS. Still trying to figure why the owner of the Houston Texans would name one of his horses Cowboy

(18) RECAPTURETHEGLORY- Two decades after accompanying RISEN STAR to wins in the Preakness and Belmont, the New Orleans team of Roussel and Lamarque is back. Reprised the Illinois Derby wire job of WAR EMBLEM in ’02 to earn Derby worthiness. Pedigree suggests that ten furlongs is a reach but he looked to have something left in Chicago after nine. Almost certain to be the early pace at a minimum.

(19) GAYEGO- Just in case Jerry Falwell’s subliminal police force is looking for another Teletubby signpost, the name is pronounced guy-eh-go not gay-ego. GAYEGO is a phonetic English spelling of Gallego, both the dialect and people of Galicia in northwest Spain. Despite his gutty score in the Arkansas Derby in his first non-syn start, pundits have declared his pedigree wanting for the Derby. We always liked his dad, GILDED TIME, and his dam is inbred to RIBOT, a potent stamina influence. Brazilian native trainer Paulo Lobo makes first Derby start but is one for one in the Oaks. Rider Mike Smith is on our preferred list after lining our pockets on GIACOMO in ’04. Possesses all important tactical speed and will be around a lot longer than most expect. A sleeper.

(20) BIG BROWN- This year’s late breaking phenom in the Curlin profile of a year ago. Majority interest was purchased by an equine hedge fund for $3 mill after his first start. Heckuva job, Brownie! Tender feet have forced bombastic trainer Dick Dutrow to think outside the hocks. The result has been only three lifetime starts for his sizzling barn. All have been laughers. Dutrow has made it no secret that he expects to win and will back it up at the window. The colt’s sire, Boundary, was a favorite of ours (we bred a mare unsuccessfully to him) but was not a router and his offspring have followed that pattern. But if Brownie repeats his Florida Derby effort, he can jog the last eighth and still win. Likely favorite and his odds will be made even shorter by the wagers of an army of U.P.S. drivers.

OUR PICK:

The pick this year has been on our watch list since he just missed in his first start at Del Mar last summer. He has wisely not hurried to make the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, winning in his second start and following that with a minor stakes win at Santa Anita. He then closed out his year with a narrow loss in the Grade I Cash Call Futurity. He has shown in his two wins in as many starts at three that he can stalk or close. His late move to grab the Santa Anita Derby was stunning.

We were in attendance at the 2000 Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs when we were rescued in the Classic from a disappointing day of tough beats. Attention was focused on Derby winner FUSAICHI PEGASUS, Belmont winner LEMON DROP KID, and Euro-champ GIANT’S CAUSEWAY. A lightly regarded California-bred three-year-old named TIZNOW came home at 10/1 in a display of true grit. He would repeat that performance in the Classic the following year at Belmont making him uniquely a dual winner of that race.

In 2004, TIZNOW was bred to the TURKOMAN mare, SWEET DAMSEL, and foaled our pick the following year. Whatever critique experts might offer of this pedigree, there is no denying it is one that favors routing over sprinting. TIZNOW was a ten furlong monster and SWEET DAMSEL’s family includes 2004 Derby third, IMPERIALISM.

The only question about our pick is how will a colt that has raced exclusively on syn-tracks handle the Churchill going. That question got a resounding response when our guy fired a bullet 57.80 in a 5/8 mile work without urging on Sunday.

We have always prided ourselves as value seekers in our Derby selection and are aware that this guy could well be the second choice when they load on Saturday. Nevertheless rank must be respected and we salute: COLONEL JOHN!

LONGSHOT SPECIAL:

We have long admitted to a bias toward California prospects in the Derby and this year confirms it because both our top and long shot picks are West Coasters. We love GAYEGO and his connections and believe those dismissing his pedigree are mistaken. This guy’s Arkansas Derby was his first dirt effort. He stalked the pace, put away the leader and then withstood a determined charge by Z FORTUNE. We love an effort like that. GAYEGO’s sire, GILDED TIME, was no one pace sprinter and won the BC Juvenile at a mile and a sixteenth. True he was third in the BC Sprint at three but he is from the DAMASCUS sire line and his female family includes Belmont winner HIGH ECHELON. While GAYEGO’s female family may not be steeped in quality, his dam DEVIL’S LAKE is inbred to RIBOT and that counts a lot to us. Most importantly GAYEGO did not look to be a short horse at Hot Springs and is training beautifully in Louisville.

THE RACE:

Our mind has become addled from conjuring the infinite number of outcomes for this year’s race. Our best guess is that BIG BROWN puts away pace maker RECAPTURETHEGLORY around the quarter pole and that GAYEGO reaches even terms with that one coming out of the turn. Midway the stretch GAYEGO opens daylight on the field as the onrush of closers PYRO, COURT VISION, Z FORTUNE, DENIS OF CORK, and most importantly COLONEL JOHN gain ground. At the finish it’s COLONEL JOHN from GAYEGO with any of another ten completing the trifecta and super.

THE BET:

Due to single digit odds, we will bet the COLONEL to win only but bet GAYEGO to win and place. We will make an exacta box with those two and DENIS. Key those three in tris and supers in front of BROWNIE, PYRO, ADRIANO and COURT VISION.

LET’S HOPE THAT 2008 MIRRORS 2007 – GOOD LUCK TO ALL!